About: Probability of success

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The probability of success (POS) is a statistics concept commonly used in the pharmaceutical industry including by health authorities to support decision making. The probability of success is a concept closely related to conditional power and predictive power. Conditional power is the probability of observing statistical significance given the observed data assuming the treatment effect parameter equals a specific value. Conditional power is often criticized for this assumption. If we know the exact value of the treatment effect, there is no need to do the experiment. To address this issue, we can consider conditional power in a Bayesian setting by considering the treatment effect parameter to be a random variable. Taking the expected value of the conditional power with respect to the post

Attributes	Values
rdfs:label	Probability of success (en)
rdfs:comment	The probability of success (POS) is a statistics concept commonly used in the pharmaceutical industry including by health authorities to support decision making. The probability of success is a concept closely related to conditional power and predictive power. Conditional power is the probability of observing statistical significance given the observed data assuming the treatment effect parameter equals a specific value. Conditional power is often criticized for this assumption. If we know the exact value of the treatment effect, there is no need to do the experiment. To address this issue, we can consider conditional power in a Bayesian setting by considering the treatment effect parameter to be a random variable. Taking the expected value of the conditional power with respect to the post (en)
dcterms:subject	Pharmaceutical statistics
Wikipage page ID	50802539 (xsd:integer)
Wikipage revision ID	1039100702 (xsd:integer)
Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage	Bayesian probability Decision making Interim analysis Predictive power Predictive probability of success Pharmaceutical statistics Credible interval Statistical significance Success (concept) Pharmaceutical industry Type I error Health authority Expected value False negative False positive Posterior probability Random variable Frequentist Posterior distribution
sameAs	Probability of success Probability of success
dbp:wikiPageUsesTemplate	dbt:Reflist
has abstract	The probability of success (POS) is a statistics concept commonly used in the pharmaceutical industry including by health authorities to support decision making. The probability of success is a concept closely related to conditional power and predictive power. Conditional power is the probability of observing statistical significance given the observed data assuming the treatment effect parameter equals a specific value. Conditional power is often criticized for this assumption. If we know the exact value of the treatment effect, there is no need to do the experiment. To address this issue, we can consider conditional power in a Bayesian setting by considering the treatment effect parameter to be a random variable. Taking the expected value of the conditional power with respect to the posterior distribution of the parameter gives the predictive power. Predictive power can also be calculated in a frequentist setting. No matter how it is calculated, predictive power is a random variable since it is a conditional probability conditioned on randomly observed data. Both conditional power and predictive power use statistical significance as the success criterion. However, statistical significance is often not sufficient to define success. For example, a health authority often requires the magnitude of the treatment effect to be bigger than an effect which is merely statistically significant in order to support successful registration. In order to address this issue, we can extend conditional power and predictive power to the concept of probability of success. For probability of success, the success criterion is not restricted to statistical significance. It can be something else such as a clinical meaningful result. (en)
prov:wasDerivedFrom	wikipedia-en:Probability_of_success?oldid=1039100702&ns=0
page length (characters) of wiki page	7513 (xsd:nonNegativeInteger)
foaf:isPrimaryTopicOf	wikipedia-en:Probability_of_success
is Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage of	Predictive power Predictive probability of success Émile Coué POS Success Posterior probability Phases of clinical research
is Wikipage disambiguates of	POS
is foaf:primaryTopic of	wikipedia-en:Probability_of_success

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