About: Confusion of the inverse

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Confusion of the inverse, also called the conditional probability fallacy or the inverse fallacy, is a logical fallacy whereupon a conditional probability is equated with its inverse; that is, given two events A and B, the probability of A happening given that B has happened is assumed to be about the same as the probability of B given A, when there is actually no evidence for this assumption. More formally, P(A|B) is assumed to be approximately equal to P(B|A).

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rdf:type	Thing yago:WikicatLogicalFallacies yago:Abstraction100002137 yago:Cognition100023271 yago:Content105809192 yago:Fallacy105893916 yago:Idea105833840 yago:LogicalFallacy105894143 yago:Misconception105893653 yago:PsychologicalFeature100023100 yago:WikicatProbabilityFallacies
rdfs:label	Confusion of the Inverse (de) Confusion of the inverse (en)
rdfs:comment	Confusion of the inverse, also called the conditional probability fallacy or the inverse fallacy, is a logical fallacy whereupon a conditional probability is equated with its inverse; that is, given two events A and B, the probability of A happening given that B has happened is assumed to be about the same as the probability of B given A, when there is actually no evidence for this assumption. More formally, P(A\|B) is assumed to be approximately equal to P(B\|A). (en) Confusion of the Inverse (engl. für „Verwechslung der Umkehrung“; auch: Conditional Probability Fallacy [„Fehlschluss der bedingten Wahrscheinlichkeit“], Inverse fallacy [„Umkehrungsfehlschluss“], Fallacy of the Transposed Probability [„Fehlschluss der transponierten Wahrscheinlichkeit“], Prosecutor’s Fallacy [„Trugschluss des Anklägers“]) ist ein logischer Fehlschluss, der darin besteht, dass eine bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeit mit ihrer Umkehrung gleichgesetzt wird. Den Begriff Confusion of the Inverse hat der amerikanische Psychologe Robyn Dawes geprägt. (de)
rdfs:seeAlso	False positive paradox
dcterms:subject	Probability fallacies Misuse of statistics
Wikipage page ID	17118964 (xsd:integer)
Wikipage revision ID	1096778656 (xsd:integer)
Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage	Bayes' theorem Probability fallacies Informal fallacy Conditional probability Monty Hall problem Converse (logic) Misuse of statistics Base rate fallacy Prior probability Sensitivity and specificity Marijuana Prosecutor's fallacy Illicit conversion
sameAs	Confusion of the inverse Confusion of the inverse Confusion of the inverse Confusion of the inverse Confusion of the inverse
dbp:wikiPageUsesTemplate	dbt:Reflist dbt:See_also
Link from a Wikipa... related subject.	Conditional probability
has abstract	Confusion of the inverse, also called the conditional probability fallacy or the inverse fallacy, is a logical fallacy whereupon a conditional probability is equated with its inverse; that is, given two events A and B, the probability of A happening given that B has happened is assumed to be about the same as the probability of B given A, when there is actually no evidence for this assumption. More formally, P(A\|B) is assumed to be approximately equal to P(B\|A). (en) Confusion of the Inverse (engl. für „Verwechslung der Umkehrung“; auch: Conditional Probability Fallacy [„Fehlschluss der bedingten Wahrscheinlichkeit“], Inverse fallacy [„Umkehrungsfehlschluss“], Fallacy of the Transposed Probability [„Fehlschluss der transponierten Wahrscheinlichkeit“], Prosecutor’s Fallacy [„Trugschluss des Anklägers“]) ist ein logischer Fehlschluss, der darin besteht, dass eine bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeit mit ihrer Umkehrung gleichgesetzt wird. Eine bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeit (z. B. die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Professor in Deutschland eine Frau ist: 25 %) ist mit ihrer Umkehrung (der Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass eine Frau in Deutschland Professor ist: 0,03 %) keineswegs identisch. Bei Confusion of the Inverse wird dieser Unterschied aber nicht verstanden und der eine Wert fehlerhaft für den anderen eingesetzt. Den Begriff Confusion of the Inverse hat der amerikanische Psychologe Robyn Dawes geprägt. (de)
prov:wasDerivedFrom	wikipedia-en:Confusion_of_the_inverse?oldid=1096778656&ns=0
page length (characters) of wiki page	8818 (xsd:nonNegativeInteger)
foaf:isPrimaryTopicOf	wikipedia-en:Confusion_of_the_inverse
is Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage of	Index of logic articles Index of philosophy articles (A–C) Correlation does not imply causation Affirming the consequent List of statistics articles Prosecutor's fallacy
is foaf:primaryTopic of	wikipedia-en:Confusion_of_the_inverse

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