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Expected shortfall (ES) is a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement to evaluate the market risk or credit risk of a portfolio. The "expected shortfall at q% level" is the expected return on the portfolio in the worst of cases. ES is an alternative to value at risk that is more sensitive to the shape of the tail of the loss distribution. Expected shortfall is also called conditional value at risk (CVaR), average value at risk (AVaR), expected tail loss (ETL), and superquantile.

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  • Conditional Value at Risk (de)
  • Expected shortfall (en)
  • 期待ショートフォール (ja)
  • Conditional Value at Risk (sv)
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  • Der Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) stellt ein bedingtes Shortfall-Risikomaß dar und wurde aus dem Value at Risk (VaR) weiterentwickelt. Ein anderer Begriff für den CVaR ist der Expected Shortfall (ES). Eine Variante dieses Risikomaßes ist die Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE). In einigen Fällen ist dieses Risikomaß auch identisch mit dem Average Value at Risk (z. B. bei allen stetigen Verlustverteilungen) (de)
  • 数理ファイナンスにおいて、期待ショートフォール(きたい~、英:Expected shortfall, ES) は、確率変数 X に関してある閾値 μ を超える部分の期待値。確率変数 X を損失額とし閾値 μ を信頼水準 1-α %における VaR とすれば、損失がVaRを超える場合の平均損失となる。ESは、CVaR(Conditional Value at Risk)と呼ばれることもある。 (ja)
  • Conditional Value at Risk (förkortat CVaR) betyder villkorligt värde vid risk. Detta är även vad som kallas för förväntad kortsiktig förlust (Expected Shortfall, ES). Dessa begrepp används vanligen inom finansiell riskmätning för att utvärdera marknadsrisken och kreditrisken för en portfölj. Termen är ett alternativ till VaR (Value at Risk), värde vid risk. (sv)
  • Expected shortfall (ES) is a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement to evaluate the market risk or credit risk of a portfolio. The "expected shortfall at q% level" is the expected return on the portfolio in the worst of cases. ES is an alternative to value at risk that is more sensitive to the shape of the tail of the loss distribution. Expected shortfall is also called conditional value at risk (CVaR), average value at risk (AVaR), expected tail loss (ETL), and superquantile. (en)
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  • Der Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) stellt ein bedingtes Shortfall-Risikomaß dar und wurde aus dem Value at Risk (VaR) weiterentwickelt. Ein anderer Begriff für den CVaR ist der Expected Shortfall (ES). Eine Variante dieses Risikomaßes ist die Tail Conditional Expectation (TCE). In einigen Fällen ist dieses Risikomaß auch identisch mit dem Average Value at Risk (z. B. bei allen stetigen Verlustverteilungen) (de)
  • Expected shortfall (ES) is a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement to evaluate the market risk or credit risk of a portfolio. The "expected shortfall at q% level" is the expected return on the portfolio in the worst of cases. ES is an alternative to value at risk that is more sensitive to the shape of the tail of the loss distribution. Expected shortfall is also called conditional value at risk (CVaR), average value at risk (AVaR), expected tail loss (ETL), and superquantile. ES estimates the risk of an investment in a conservative way, focusing on the less profitable outcomes. For high values of it ignores the most profitable but unlikely possibilities, while for small values of it focuses on the worst losses. On the other hand, unlike the discounted maximum loss, even for lower values of the expected shortfall does not consider only the single most catastrophic outcome. A value of often used in practice is 5%. Expected shortfall is considered a more useful risk measure than VaR because it is a coherent spectral measure of financial portfolio risk. It is calculated for a given quantile-level , and is defined to be the mean loss of portfolio value given that a loss is occurring at or below the -quantile. (en)
  • 数理ファイナンスにおいて、期待ショートフォール(きたい~、英:Expected shortfall, ES) は、確率変数 X に関してある閾値 μ を超える部分の期待値。確率変数 X を損失額とし閾値 μ を信頼水準 1-α %における VaR とすれば、損失がVaRを超える場合の平均損失となる。ESは、CVaR(Conditional Value at Risk)と呼ばれることもある。 (ja)
  • Conditional Value at Risk (förkortat CVaR) betyder villkorligt värde vid risk. Detta är även vad som kallas för förväntad kortsiktig förlust (Expected Shortfall, ES). Dessa begrepp används vanligen inom finansiell riskmätning för att utvärdera marknadsrisken och kreditrisken för en portfölj. Termen är ett alternativ till VaR (Value at Risk), värde vid risk. (sv)
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