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Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by the chaotic nature of the evolution equations of the atmosphere, which is often referred to as sensitive dependence on initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical

Attributes	Values
rdf:type	Thing software yago:WikicatMonteCarloMethods yago:Ability105616246 yago:Abstraction100002137 yago:Cognition100023271 yago:Know-how105616786 yago:Method105660268 yago:PsychologicalFeature100023100
rdfs:label	Ensembleprognose (de) Ensemble forecasting (en) Prévision d'ensembles (fr)
rdfs:comment	Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by the chaotic nature of the evolution equations of the atmosphere, which is often referred to as sensitive dependence on initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical (en) La prévision d'ensembles est une méthode de prévision numérique du temps utilisé pour tenter de générer un échantillon représentatif des états futurs possibles d'un système dynamique. En effet, ni les observations, ni l'analyse, ni le modèle de prévision ne sont parfaits et la dynamique atmosphérique est très sensible, dans certaines conditions, à la moindre fluctuation. (fr)
rdfs:seeAlso	History of numerical weather prediction
foaf:depiction
dcterms:subject	Climate and weather statistics Monte Carlo methods Statistical forecasting Numerical climate and weather models
Wikipage page ID	2451045 (xsd:integer)
Wikipage revision ID	1057857438 (xsd:integer)
Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage	Probability distribution Ensemble (fluid mechanics) Ensemble Kalman filter Entrainment (meteorology) National Centers for Environmental Prediction Numerical weather prediction Meteogram Probabilistic forecasting Climate and weather statistics Monte Carlo methods Reliability (statistics) US Navy Variance Dynamical system Standard deviation North American Ensemble Forecast System THORPEX Climateprediction.net Environment Canada Ministry of Earth Sciences Monte Carlo method Météo-France Consensus forecast Arithmetic mean Liouville's theorem (Hamiltonian) Singular value decomposition Climate ensemble Parametrization (atmospheric modeling) Spaghetti plot Thunderstorm Bureau of Meteorology Statistical forecasting Turbulence Data sharing Linear regression THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble Data assimilation Fluid dynamics Forecasting Bred vector Edward Epstein (meteorologist) Forecast skill Probability density function Statistical randomness Japan Meteorological Agency Numerical climate and weather models Chaos theory China Meteorological Administration Korea Meteorological Administration Met Office Model output statistics Uncertainty Satellite temperature measurements European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts US Air Force Stochastic process Nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression Edward Lorenz Probability of exceedance CPTEC Sensitive dependence on initial conditions dbr:Cecil_Leith
Link from a Wikipage to an external page	https://books.google.com/books%3Fid=qnMrFEHMrWwC%7Cyear=2013 http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/thorpex_new.html http://tigge.ecmwf.int
sameAs	Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting Ensemble forecasting
dbp:wikiPageUsesTemplate	dbt:Computer_modeling dbt:Cite_book

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