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Statements

Subject Item
dbr:Hockey_stick_graph_(global_temperature)
rdfs:label
ホッケースティック論争 Hockeyklubbskurvan Graphique en crosse de hockey Hokejkový graf Hockeystickcurve Hockey stick graph (global temperature) Hockeyschläger-Diagramm
rdfs:comment
De Hockeystick is een veelgebruikte benaming voor een grafiek uit de paleoklimatologie. De grafiek geeft een reconstructie weer van de temperatuur op het Noordelijk Halfrond gedurende het afgelopen millennium (jaar 1000-2000). Omdat gestandaardiseerde metingen met thermometers pas begonnen omstreeks 1850, werd de reconstructie uitgevoerd aan de hand van proxies. Dit zijn indirecte gegevens waaruit de temperatuur kan worden afgeleid. In het geval van de Hockeystick ging het daarbij om boomringen. Hockey stick graphs present the global or hemispherical mean temperature record of the past 500 to 2000 years as shown by quantitative climate reconstructions based on climate proxy records. These reconstructions have consistently shown a slow long term cooling trend changing into relatively rapid warming in the 20th century, with the instrumental temperature record by 2000 exceeding earlier temperatures. En hockeyklubbskurva är en graf som efter en längre stabil utveckling visar en brant stegring. Två exempel är befolkningsexplosionen och global uppvärmning. ホッケースティック論争(ホッケースティックろんそう、英:Hockey stick controversy)とは、人為的な地球温暖化の証拠のひとつとして採用された古気候学に基づき見積もられた気温データに対して、過去の気候変動を過小評価するためにデータが改竄されていたのではないかという疑惑をめぐり引き起こされた論争のこと。 Le graphique en « crosse de hockey » désigne la forme des reconstitutions dites « MBH98 » et « MBH99 » de la variation de la température moyenne du globe depuis 1 000 ans proposée en 1998 puis 1999 par Michael E. Mann assisté de Raymond S. Bradley et Malcolm K. Hughes. Das Hockeyschläger-Diagramm hat seine Bezeichnung nach der Form des Eishockeyschlägers und beruht auf einer 1999 veröffentlichten wissenschaftlichen Untersuchung von Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley und zur globalen Erwärmung. Bekannt wurde es durch den Dritten Sachstandsbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Indem es den Temperaturverlauf des letzten Jahrtausends auf der nördlichen Hemisphäre darstellt, diente es der Veranschaulichung der in diesem Bericht getroffenen Aussagen. Hokejkový graf je přezdívka, kterou dostal graf rekonstrukce průběhu teplot z proxy dat za posledních 500 až 2000 let. Tyto rekonstrukce ukázaly relativně lineární průběh teplot od středověku až do roku 1900 a poté náhlý vzestup, kde instrumentální záznamy teplot v roce 2000 překročily všechny předchozí rekonstrukce teplot za toto období. Termín hokejka použil poprvé Jerry Mahlman, když popisoval graf z práce Mann, Bredley a Hughes 1999 (často známé pod zkratkou MBH99) s tím, že relativně lineární část grafu od středověku do roku 1900 připomíná hůl , zatímco náhlý nárůst v posledních letech připomíná její čepel. Tato rekonstrukce byla použita ve zprávách IPCC jako důkaz současného globálního oteplování. Různé skupiny lidí začaly tento graf zpochybňovat a tím zpochybňovat celé výzkumy globá
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De Hockeystick is een veelgebruikte benaming voor een grafiek uit de paleoklimatologie. De grafiek geeft een reconstructie weer van de temperatuur op het Noordelijk Halfrond gedurende het afgelopen millennium (jaar 1000-2000). Omdat gestandaardiseerde metingen met thermometers pas begonnen omstreeks 1850, werd de reconstructie uitgevoerd aan de hand van proxies. Dit zijn indirecte gegevens waaruit de temperatuur kan worden afgeleid. In het geval van de Hockeystick ging het daarbij om boomringen. In 1998 publiceerden Michael E. Mann, en (MBH) een artikel met de eerste kwantitatieve temperatuursreconstructie aan de hand van proxies van de eeuwen voor 1850. De studie ging terug tot 1400 en toonde aan dat de temperaturen op het einde van de 20e eeuw sterk begonnen te stijgen. In 1999 publiceerden MBH een uitbreiding van hun werk die terugging tot het jaar 1000. In dit artikel stond de grafiek die, vanwege zijn overeenkomst met een IJshockeystick, de "Hockeystick" werd gedoopt door klimatoloog Jerry Mahlman van NOAA. Het Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, dat klimaatwetenschap samenvat, nam in 2001 de hockeystick samen met de resultaten van de reconstructies van andere onderzoekers op in het derde assessment rapport. De grafiek werd in bredere kringen bekend vanwege de vele kritiek, vooral omdat het middeleeuws klimaatoptimum bijna niet te zien is. Sommige klimaatsceptici beweren ten onrechte dat de hele theorie van de opwarming van de aarde op de hockeystick berust. Hoewel de grafiek vaak aangehaald wordt om de opwarming van de aarde te laten zien, gaan klimaatmodelleurs er niet van uit. Vele onderzoekers vinden de onzekerheden in temperatuurreconstructies tot de middeleeuwen nog te groot. Verschillende wetenschappelijke artikelen die sinds 1998 zijn verschenen gebruiken andere proxies en statistische technieken, maar bevestigen in grote lijnen de Hockeystick, met enige variatie in hoe vlak de "steel" van de Hockeystick loopt. In 2008 verscheen een nieuw onderzoek van Michael E. Mann waarin meer dan duizend proxy-reeksen werden gebruikt. Hierbij bleek dat het resultaat niet afhangt van bepaalde gegevens als boomreeksen. En hockeyklubbskurva är en graf som efter en längre stabil utveckling visar en brant stegring. Två exempel är befolkningsexplosionen och global uppvärmning. Le graphique en « crosse de hockey » désigne la forme des reconstitutions dites « MBH98 » et « MBH99 » de la variation de la température moyenne du globe depuis 1 000 ans proposée en 1998 puis 1999 par Michael E. Mann assisté de Raymond S. Bradley et Malcolm K. Hughes. Das Hockeyschläger-Diagramm hat seine Bezeichnung nach der Form des Eishockeyschlägers und beruht auf einer 1999 veröffentlichten wissenschaftlichen Untersuchung von Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley und zur globalen Erwärmung. Bekannt wurde es durch den Dritten Sachstandsbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Indem es den Temperaturverlauf des letzten Jahrtausends auf der nördlichen Hemisphäre darstellt, diente es der Veranschaulichung der in diesem Bericht getroffenen Aussagen. Das Diagramm wurde in Presseberichten über den dritten Sachstandsbericht und zu Themen der globalen Erwärmung oft zur Illustration verwendet, auch der Sachstandsbericht selbst enthielt eine Darstellung des Diagramms. Zwar war die globale Erwärmung bereits zu diesem Zeitpunkt vielfach belegt, da das Diagramm jedoch diese anschaulich verdeutlicht, wurde es zu einem wichtigen Ziel von Klimawandelleugnern. Nach 2003 entwickelte sich eine Kontroverse um die statistischen Grundlagen des Diagramms und die aus ihm zu ziehenden Schlüsse. Eine Einschätzung des Zustandekommens des Diagramms wie auch der Kontroverse wird im Vierten Sachstandsbericht angeführt. Ein Expertengremium des National Research Council (NRC) kam 2006 zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Schlussfolgerung plausibel ist, dass die letzten Jahrzehnte des 20. Jahrhunderts auf der Nordhalbkugel der Erde die wärmste Zeitspanne innerhalb des vergangenen Jahrtausends gewesen sind. Die Grundform und -aussage des Hockeyschläger-Diagramms – eine allmähliche Abkühlung bis zum Beginn der Industrialisierung, gefolgt von einer ungewöhnlichen raschen Erwärmung, mit den wärmsten Dekaden in der Gegenwart – wurde mittlerweile vielfach durch Arbeiten anderer Autoren und auf Basis weiterer Klimaproxys bestätigt. ホッケースティック論争(ホッケースティックろんそう、英:Hockey stick controversy)とは、人為的な地球温暖化の証拠のひとつとして採用された古気候学に基づき見積もられた気温データに対して、過去の気候変動を過小評価するためにデータが改竄されていたのではないかという疑惑をめぐり引き起こされた論争のこと。 Hockey stick graphs present the global or hemispherical mean temperature record of the past 500 to 2000 years as shown by quantitative climate reconstructions based on climate proxy records. These reconstructions have consistently shown a slow long term cooling trend changing into relatively rapid warming in the 20th century, with the instrumental temperature record by 2000 exceeding earlier temperatures. The term hockey stick graph was popularized by the climatologist Jerry Mahlman, to describe the pattern shown by the (MBH99) reconstruction, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat with a downward trend to 1900 as forming an ice hockey stick's "shaft" followed by a sharp, steady increase corresponding to the "blade" portion. The reconstructions have featured in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports as evidence of global warming. Arguments over the reconstructions have been taken up by fossil fuel industry funded lobbying groups attempting to cast doubt on climate science. Paleoclimatology dates back to the 19th century, and the concept of examining varves in lake beds and tree rings to track local climatic changes was suggested in the 1930s. In the 1960s, Hubert Lamb generalised from historical documents and temperature records of central England to propose a Medieval Warm Period from around 900 to 1300, followed by Little Ice Age. This was the basis of a "schematic diagram" featured in the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 beside cautions that the medieval warming might not have been global. The use of indicators to get quantitative estimates of the temperature record of past centuries was developed, and by the late 1990s a number of competing teams of climatologists found indications that recent warming was exceptional. introduced the "Composite Plus Scaling" (CPS) method which, as of 2009, was still being used by most large-scale reconstructions. Their study was featured in the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995. In 1998 Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes developed new statistical techniques to produce (MBH98), the first eigenvector-based climate field reconstruction (CFR). This showed global patterns of annual surface temperature, and included a graph of average hemispheric temperatures back to 1400 with shading emphasising that uncertainties (to two standard error limits) were much greater in earlier centuries. independently produced a CPS reconstruction extending back for a thousand years, and (MBH99) used the MBH98 methodology to extend their study back to 1000. A version of the MBH99 graph was featured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), which also drew on Jones et al. 1998 and three other reconstructions to support the conclusion that, in the Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s was likely to have been the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year during the past 1,000 years. The graph became a focus of dispute for those opposed to the strengthening scientific consensus that late 20th century warmth was exceptional. In 2003, as lobbying over the 1997 Kyoto Protocol intensified, a paper claiming greater medieval warmth was quickly dismissed by scientists in the Soon and Baliunas controversy. Later in 2003, Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick published disputing the data used in MBH98 paper. In 2004 Hans von Storch published criticism of the statistical techniques as tending to underplay variations in earlier parts of the graph, though this was disputed and he later accepted that the effect was very small. In 2005 McIntyre and McKitrick published criticisms of the principal components analysis methodology as used in MBH98 and MBH99. Their analysis was subsequently disputed by published papers including and which pointed to errors in the McIntyre and McKitrick methodology. Political disputes led to the formation of a panel of scientists convened by the United States National Research Council, their North Report in 2006 supported Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the result. More than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, support the broad consensus shown in the original 1998 hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears. The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report cited 14 reconstructions, 10 of which covered 1,000 years or longer, to support its strengthened conclusion that it was likely that Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the 20th century were the highest in at least the past 1,300 years. Further reconstructions, including and , have supported these general conclusions. Hokejkový graf je přezdívka, kterou dostal graf rekonstrukce průběhu teplot z proxy dat za posledních 500 až 2000 let. Tyto rekonstrukce ukázaly relativně lineární průběh teplot od středověku až do roku 1900 a poté náhlý vzestup, kde instrumentální záznamy teplot v roce 2000 překročily všechny předchozí rekonstrukce teplot za toto období. Termín hokejka použil poprvé Jerry Mahlman, když popisoval graf z práce Mann, Bredley a Hughes 1999 (často známé pod zkratkou MBH99) s tím, že relativně lineární část grafu od středověku do roku 1900 připomíná hůl , zatímco náhlý nárůst v posledních letech připomíná její čepel. Tato rekonstrukce byla použita ve zprávách IPCC jako důkaz současného globálního oteplování. Různé skupiny lidí začaly tento graf zpochybňovat a tím zpochybňovat celé výzkumy globálního oteplování.
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