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Statements

Subject Item
dbr:Swing_(politics)
rdf:type
yago:WikicatElections yago:YagoPermanentlyLocatedEntity yago:Act100030358 yago:Event100029378 yago:Election100181781 yago:WikicatElectionsInAustralia yago:WikicatElectionsInTheUnitedStates yago:WikicatElectionsInTheUnitedKingdom yago:PsychologicalFeature100023100 yago:Vote100182213 yago:Abstraction100002137 yago:GroupAction101080366
rdfs:label
Swing (politique) Swing (politics) 鐘擺效應
rdfs:comment
An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic. 鐘擺效應（英語：swing）主要是描述人類情緒的高低擺盪現象，是選民心理的常見現象，指當某陣營在一次選舉中大勝後，大敗的陣營較易在下一次選舉收復失地，就如鐘擺向左擺後便會向右，循環不息，這主要是出於人民不想一黨持續獨大的表現。例如在歐洲不少國家，便經常出現執政黨輪替的情況。 政治選舉中的鐘擺效應並非必然定律，當中還有其他客觀未明因素，反面例子有新加坡、俄羅斯、菲律賓等。鐘擺效應只用於賽後解釋，而難準確用於賽前預測。最明顯的例子是美國期中選舉，無論何黨為執政黨，幾乎必遭受程度不一的失敗（國會失去部分席次，甚至失去控制權），此源於選民對執政黨的不滿，或至少是給執政黨一些警訊。這情況在1998年發生例外，當時受柯林頓彈劾案影響下，執政的民主黨反取回數個國會席次。 En science politique, la notion de swing (« revirement » ou « transfert » en anglais), ou de transfert électoral, est une donnée exprimée en points de pourcentage permettant de considérer l’évolution du soutien d’un parti d’une élection à une autre. Elle peut être calculée à partir de l’évolution du pourcentage de voix d’un seul parti ou bien en fonction des données électorales de deux formations politiques. Ce type d’analyse est généralement utilisé dans les pays du monde anglo-saxon admettant un système bipartisan, notamment l’Australie et le Royaume-Uni.
foaf:depiction
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dct:subject
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owl:sameAs
dbpedia-fr:Swing_(politique) freebase:m.049mdh dbpedia-cy:Gogwydd_(gwleidyddiaeth) yago-res:Swing_(politics) dbpedia-zh:鐘擺效應 wikidata:Q7658517 n21:4vS51 dbpedia-vi:Hiệu_ứng_rung_lắc_(chính_trị_học)
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dbo:thumbnail
n11:Ukrainian_parliamentary_election,_2007_(Swing).png?width=300
dbo:abstract
En science politique, la notion de swing (« revirement » ou « transfert » en anglais), ou de transfert électoral, est une donnée exprimée en points de pourcentage permettant de considérer l’évolution du soutien d’un parti d’une élection à une autre. Elle peut être calculée à partir de l’évolution du pourcentage de voix d’un seul parti ou bien en fonction des données électorales de deux formations politiques. Ce type d’analyse est généralement utilisé dans les pays du monde anglo-saxon admettant un système bipartisan, notamment l’Australie et le Royaume-Uni. An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic. A swing is particularly useful for analysing change in voter support over time, or as a tool for predicting the outcome of elections in constituency-based systems. Swing is also usefully deployed when analysing the shift in voter intentions revealed by (political) opinion polls or to compare polls concisely which may rely on differing samples and on markedly different swings and therefore predict extraneous results. 鐘擺效應（英語：swing）主要是描述人類情緒的高低擺盪現象，是選民心理的常見現象，指當某陣營在一次選舉中大勝後，大敗的陣營較易在下一次選舉收復失地，就如鐘擺向左擺後便會向右，循環不息，這主要是出於人民不想一黨持續獨大的表現。例如在歐洲不少國家，便經常出現執政黨輪替的情況。 政治選舉中的鐘擺效應並非必然定律，當中還有其他客觀未明因素，反面例子有新加坡、俄羅斯、菲律賓等。鐘擺效應只用於賽後解釋，而難準確用於賽前預測。最明顯的例子是美國期中選舉，無論何黨為執政黨，幾乎必遭受程度不一的失敗（國會失去部分席次，甚至失去控制權），此源於選民對執政黨的不滿，或至少是給執政黨一些警訊。這情況在1998年發生例外，當時受柯林頓彈劾案影響下，執政的民主黨反取回數個國會席次。
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